If your mortgage is coming up for renewal this year, you’re not alone—and you’re not making this decision in a typical market.
Between global uncertainty, rising oil prices, and ongoing inflation concerns, we’ve seen increased volatility in bond markets. At the same time, Canada is in the middle of one of the largest mortgage renewal waves we’ve seen in decades, with over a million mortgages set to renew in 2026.
For many homeowners, that’s bringing a familiar question back into focus: should you choose a fixed or variable rate?
But right now, this isn’t just about picking a rate. It’s about choosing the right strategy for where things are today—and where they could go next.
Why the conversation has shifted again
Over the past couple of years, fixed rates were the clear choice for many borrowers. That’s starting to change.
Variable rates have come down as the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate, while fixed rates have recently moved higher due to bond market volatility. That shift has reopened a noticeable gap between the two, with variable rates now often coming in lower than fixed options.
At first glance, that can make variable rates appealing—especially for borrowers looking to reduce their monthly payments.
But there’s more to the story.
Lower today doesn’t always mean lower overall
Variable rates can offer immediate savings, but they also come with uncertainty.
Unlike fixed rates, they can change over time. And while we’ve seen rates come down, the path forward isn’t guaranteed. Inflation, economic conditions, and global events can all shift the outlook quickly.
That means the decision isn’t just about what looks best today—it’s about what you’re comfortable with over the next few years.
How to think about the trade-offs
Instead of focusing only on rate, it helps to think about how each option fits your lifestyle and financial comfort level.
Fixed rates are about stability.
They lock in your payment, protect you from rising costs, and make budgeting simple—but they can come with more restrictive penalties if your plans change.
Variable rates are about flexibility.
They often start lower and typically have more favourable penalties if you need to break your mortgage early—but they require a higher tolerance for change.
What matters most right now
There isn’t a clear “right answer” in today’s market.
Fixed rates are being influenced by bond market volatility, while variable rates depend on future decisions from the Bank of Canada. Both come with uncertainty—just in different ways.
That’s why the most important factor isn’t trying to predict the market. It’s understanding your own situation.
- Would rising payments create stress, or are you comfortable with some fluctuation?
- Do you expect to move or refinance in the next few years?
- How important is consistency in your monthly budget?
Your renewal is an opportunity—not just a decision
Too often, renewals are treated as a quick signature and a checkbox.
In reality, this is one of the best opportunities to reassess your mortgage and make sure it still aligns with your goals, your plans, and today’s market conditions.
If your mortgage is coming up for renewal, it’s worth taking the time to explore both options and understand what each could mean for you.
If you’d like to walk through it together, I’m always here to help you make a decision that feels right—not just today, but long term.